We have a new team high score, with ROBOKAUZ (21417A) pairing up with GEARS (323V) to combine for 256 - quite impressive!
We’ve now seen just under 10,000 matches played at 184 events, with just over 2700 matches played this week alone. This week’s AWP came in at 1.4%, lowering the season AWP to 2.6%. Scoring in those highgoals from across the court is challenging, made worse by scoring points for the other team, leading to a potential loss of the 10 point auton. With Signature Events in Texas and at Speedway the next 2 weeks, I’d expect it to tick up a little. I must say, I’m really surprised that the success rate is so low.
Best wishes to all competitors as we start to enter the middle of the season!
At some point will you be removing World’s qualification and elimination matches from the TrueSkill calculations? It seems logical that as the season progresses, it’s reasonable to use data from this season to calculate the apparent skill of a team.
Not currently my plan; at this point I’m committed to leaving them in, again under the theory that World’s provides the biggest cross-regional competition.
I’ve noticed that this approach has some flaws I didn’t (but should have) anticipated. Namely, that teams that were not top-tier at World’s wind up being undervalued at the beginning of the season. That is, a slightly below median team at World’s would be predicted by TrueSkill to have less than a 50% chance of beating a random “new” (and therefore median) team, which was not my intent.
That said, and the reason I want to continue to consider TiP World’s is that this will balance out over the course of the season, since TrueSkill is adaptive to new information. So that below-median-at-World’s team will rise faster as it (presumably) beats new teams.
Basically, I believe I’m trading early-season inaccuracy for late-season accuracy. I’ll assess this approach at the end of the year and decide whether to revert to an excluded-prior-season-World’s approach or not, or something different, such as pulling in the prior year’s World’s later in the season/leading into World’s.