VEX match outcome projector

I am working on a program that can predict the out come of vex matches it uses VEX DB for its data. Right now it just takes the average score or the teams in the alliance(this generates a score prediction for the alliance). My current algorithm is simple (all matches played by the two teams on a alliance)/(number of matches played by those two teams combined matches played). Does the forum have any suggestions for how to predict the out come of a match because right now it is only good at predicting blow outs.

I’d recommend doing this: calculate the variance and average score for each team in a match. add the means and variances together for each alliance. Analyse the score difference margin with normal distribution.
I understand that is badly explained. If you have any questions please ask.
EDIT:Great name by the way :slight_smile: