I’ve decided to make available my season data analysis. Data are pulled from RobotEvents, the plan is to do so weekly, though during this initial phase, it may be more frequent as I find and fix bugs.
The website is here: http://vrc-data-analysis.com/
The data from RobotEvents for League events, seems “unreliable”. I’ve not yet opened a ticket with them, but I suspect there’s something going on with Tournament Manager and League events that span multiple weeks. For example: https://www.robotevents.com/robot-competitions/vex-robotics-competition/RE-VRC-20-2751.html#results shows a total (as of 2/28/2021) of 22 matches, while Win/Loss records indicate many of the 18 teams have played 20 matches. [EDIT: It looks like only the most recent matches report, but the W/L/T/AP are correct]
The main feature is that it displays the results of Microsoft’s “True Skills” algorithm. This is what they use to match players in games like Halo, and serves as a more general purpose ELO ranking system, in that it works for team-based games. True Skill assumes an individual’s performance is based on a normal distribution of their “skill”. One can use participant’s True Skill to come up with a probability of a match between participants. I’ve added a tab that allows one to enter a 2v2 and see who is favored, and by how much.
Because RobotEvents does not have tournament results for Live Remote Tournaments, it is not possible to analyze these competitions.
There is also an analysis of the Elimination rounds for in-person tournaments.
I’ve done some basic analysis on Skills for the year, as well. This includes any Skills score published to RobotEvents, so In-Person, Live Remote, and Recorded runs are included.
[EDIT: For those interested (Discord Bot authors, App creators), there is a REST API for the Prediction function]