Let say people already have tools that do the job. Then, if manufacturers want to successfully sell them new tools, they need to consider {value proposition/quality vs price} and {supply and demand} curves in order to plan R&D budget and bring competitive products to the market. Expensive products will not sell well if they offer no significant value over the competition or what people already have (unless there is a monopoly and buyers have no other choices).
My guess is that the eventual high volume target market that VEX had in mind for their VAIC hardware were High School labs, where they may not have mentors with @tabor473 or @nickmertin level of expertise in AI, and advanced stuff (like on-field GPS, depth vision, robot-to-robot comm, etc…) needs to work out of the box. That must have determined system architecture requirements and R&D budget.
When they were estimating costs and modeling supply and demand, they may have counted on sponsors offsetting the costs in the first inaugural season and they, obviously, had no idea at a time of the initial planning how everything will be turned upside down with the disastrous coronavirus response.
More than six months into pandemic there are still huge uncertainties everywhere. We don’t know much about long term coronavirus health impacts, we cannot predict how virus will evolve in the Fall, and we cannot be certain that people will be disciplined in following any social distancing, masking, and vaccination guidelines. Judging by the first few school reopenings that we’ve already seen - teen and tween behavior may be a source of major risk in spreading the virus.
Even if there is a small chance that herd immunity could happen sooner than expected, it would be foolish to count on it. Time after time covid numbers had turned out worse than expected. Given all that uncertainty and downside potential, it is prudent to increase the safety margins and, for the schools, that could mean to preemptively cancel all optional activities or even cut in-person classes and labs. Many schools already did that and it feels likely that lots more will have no other choice but to do the same in the near future. For VEX that could be translating into collapsing hardware demand and revenues for the next six to nine months.
I wouldn’t be that categorical. Although it would be super nice to have open hardware and software, which could easily connect to and communicate with the third party products. I do believe, that it is a better business strategy in the long run, because it leverages community contributions and gives potential for more diverse customer base than just school labs and robotic teams. But we are not really qualified or informed enough to give advice to people running IFI.
As as a consumer I could definitely say that I would be buying much more of their products if I knew that I could easily re-purpose, re-program, and inter-connect them with third party sensors and micro-controllers. For example, I love EDR structural components, sensors, and 393 motors because it is so easy to connect them to a cheap controller like Arduino or Node MCU, but anything V5, in my opinion, is not worth the money for an average hobbyist because of its closedness.
After all, people who could be the best VEX champions/advocates are current or future engineers who are very good at comparing costs of the potential solutions. This topic is a good illustration that closed hardware and software model just don’t carry as much of the perceived value anymore and don’t seem to have enough flexibility to rapidly adapt to the unexpected conditions.
The bottom line is that VEX and RECF need to keep their business financially afloat while the usual demand is not there. Their bet is that they will still have enough demand at the current price point. If not - they could either decrease the price in the hope to increase the volume, or somehow increase the value of the offering, for example, by opening their source code or interfaces. But that may be conflicting with the business model for the future revenues.
Could there be any other options to make everyone involved with VAIC happy this season?