Highest predicted losing score at worlds

Here’s an interesting stat… Currently 268 is the highest losing alliance score for this season (and this only happened once- the next highest was 262). Meaning that every team that has scored more than this has won. Despite it being technically possible for scores up to 310 to be beaten (lift not included). If you include lifts, then the mathematically beatable number goes up another 50 points making it even more surprising that its not higher. This raises two interesting questions…

  1. Why is this number not higher?
  2. What will be the magic number at Worlds that if you break you will win?

This is quite interesting. So once you are above a certain threshold (assuming the conditions described) you can be guaranteed a win… Time to score some strength of schedule points I guess :slight_smile:

Some teams already really focus on SP, that’s why some tournaments have such high SP. Not that the losers are that good, but the winners are scoring over 100pts for the losers!

These are not quite accurate because, if you score less points in balls, then the other team has more points available for them to score. For instance, if you score 235 in balls and high lift for a total of 285 points, the other team now has the ability to score 335 without lifting.

Thank you for correcting my math (310 was making some assumptions that I forgot I was making/failed to state- as in we have a high lifting robot)…please let me reciprocate

If your alliance has a lift (either high or low) and the other does not, just subtracting 25/50 does not account for the fact that if your alliance scores less field balls, which are now available for the other team.

To calculate the “magic number” the equation is:
magic number=(570+abs(lift score from one side-other))/2

High lift verses No Lift
(570+50)/2=310 - the first to break guarantees a win (260 before lift for that team)

Low Lift verses No lift = High lift verses Low Lift
(570+25)/2=(570+50-25)/2= 305 (lifting/high lifting team reaches 280 before lift)

If you assume that the highest total match scores on VexDB include at least one low lift , then it has been was possible for scores up to 300 to still lose yet we’re no where near this.

Based on the scores you either assume that 4 top scoring teams have never meet in competition or about 10% of the potential score will not be realized. This 10% loss of possible balls is likely due to balls in/under low goal and off field.

There will be plenty of 300 pt losers. If you split the field points(125) and both get all driver control loads(160) and both tied autonomous ( so no autonomous winner) - that’s 285 each. Now if each get low lift then 310 each and if both get high lift, now we have 335 each. So take away 1 green ball and give to the other team and you have 340-330 score. So you can loose with a 330 score. Crazy score to have and loose!

With the 10pt autonomous bonus added, there could be a 340-340 tie. If you take one ball from one team and put it in their low goal, then there would be a 336 losing score. This would be the highest losing score possible. You would need to score 337-339 or 341+ to guarantee a victory.

I think that these scores being predicted won’t be very accurate since there are a lot of variables such as robots will probably not have 100% accuracy and with defense being played the scores will go down substantially. You can also have teams get blocked from getting to full court area to lift or even to full court. The scores will jump around based defense, how good the fielding bots are (There will almost never be a perfect 50/50 split), generally how good the teams are playing (if someone scores scores 160 then potential score of the other team is a lot higher than if some score 220). Although you are correct in the idea that if you score that much it guarantees victory.

Lelder,your right. I thought of that later. Add in the 10 then the winner would have 345 and take a green ball from them and now 340 and give the loser 1 pt low goal with that green ball so you have a 336 losing score. Bizarre. Most of the top teams are going to be near perfect.

296 was the highest losing score (happened twice).

Well hoarding kept the scores down quite a bit.
Not really close to a 400pt game. Science got a 376pt.

there were two matches, one in Science Semi-Finals and one in the World Finals, that would have had a 300+ losing score if it weren’t for failed lifts