Really until the last event in your region has run, you won’t know; you can generally make some educated guesses, though.
Let’s look at the Maryland region, since it looks like that’s where 952S is from. Currently there are 48 slots total for the Middle School state championships, with 41 spots still open (so only 7 teams currently qualified and registered). Looks like there’s about 10 events left between now and the end of the season, including leagues. Max from that would be 30 teams (assuming 10 events, all with unique winners, no double qualifiers); let’s figure 20 teams realistically will be added to registration through qualification prior to State. That would leave about 20’ish spots left to be filled from the state skills list, going down the list for all the teams that aren’t already qualified (might I recommend this helpful spreadsheet (shameless self-plug)).
So, from this sort of math, you can guesstimate how far down the skills list will get invites. Given that Maryland’s state skills list only has 37 total teams, it’s a reasonable assumption that they’ll exhaust the skills list entries and still have spots left over.
By comparison, where I’m at in Indiana, there’s 427 teams on the skills list just for elementary, with just 100 (right now) total spots (with 39 presently filled, 61 open). So there are teams every year that get nowhere close to getting invites to state because there are tons on the skills list.
All of the above math is also why I made that Google Sheets document to be able to digest this more quickly and make sure our teams have a reasonable minimum skills target value to be shooting for if they want to make it to State.